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How to Forecast Oil Prices?

oil price forecast
The evolution of oil prices is typically subject to a very high degree of uncertainty, given the extremely volatile nature of conditions that affect prices. Information on the future of oil prices is, however, extremely important for market operators as well as for central banks. Central banks, in particular, have a forward-looking perspective, attaching a very important role to inflation forecasts. This uncertainty tends to reinforce the importance of the relationship between oil prices and inflation, independently of estimates of the effects of a permanent change in oil prices on inflation and how to forecast oil prices. Two alternative technical assumptions on oil prices are worth mentioning: (more…)

28.08.2011

Oil Price Volatility as an Important Source of Inflation Changes

Oil Price Volatility
The volatility in oil prices since the early 1970s is a remarkable feature of energy economics. Annual fluctuations in the oil price level, as measured by the absolute value of year-to-year price changes, averaged only 1% in the 1949–1970 period; from 1970 to date, these fluctuations increased dramatically, reaching an order of magnitude of 30% per year. Even in the relatively stable period from 1986 to 1997, oil prices were more volatile than other primary commodities. (more…)

26.08.2011

Oil Prices Inflation Since the Early 1970s

Oil Prices Inflation
In the post-World War II period, until the beginning of the 1970s, oil price fluctuations were very small. From 1949 to 1970, average annual fluctuations of oil prices in U.S. dollars, as measured by the absolute value of year-to-year price changes, were of the order of 1%. Therefore, the real price (i.e., inflation adjusted) slightly declined throughout this period. This so-called Golden Age peak oil impacts period was characterized by a remarkable price stability and very strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the main industrialized economies. The stability of oil prices was an important element behind the low inflation and strong economic growth. (more…)

24.08.2011

Coal Use for Coproduction of Heat and Electricity

Natural gas and oil are common source energy used to give electricity. How efficient is coal if we compare to these other source of energy? With respect to security of supply, coal has a clear advantage. The United States has about 300 million recoverable tons of coal. This amount is sufficiency to last 300 years if we are consuming coal in the same ratio that we used today. In addition, carbon is a versatile and cheap source of fuel. Coal can be used as a solid fuel or converted into a gas to replace expensive imported fuels. (more…)

2.01.2011

Energy Use in Different Types of Homes

The U.S. Department of Energy has determined that about 80% of residential energy use is consumed in single-family homes, while 15% is consumed in multifamily dwellings such as apartments, and 5% is consumed in mobile homes.

More than half of the energy used for heating in building and home for single-family homes is natural gas, about one-fourth is electricity, (more…)

2.08.2010

Energy Import Dependence, Resource Exhaustion and Carbon Policy

energy import dependence
Geopolitical risk refers almost always to primary energy carriers (oil, gas, coal, uranium or renewable energy) since their location depends on the vagaries of geology and climate. Production and energy consumption are thus often physically far apart and take place in countries and regions with different histories, cultures and values. Apart from oil & gas exploration and production, all other steps of the energy chain such as refinement or enrichment, energy conversion and distribution can be moved physically closer to the final customer or are, like consumption, directly under the latter’s control. (more…)

29.07.2010

Oil and Gas Exploration, Production, and Processing

Oil Gas Exploration
Most major oil and gas firms engage in both upstream (i.e., hydrocarbon exploration and production) and downstream (i.e., hydrocarbon refining and marketing) businesses as well as related activities such as chemicals, and their R&D activities serve the needs of these businesses. During the past decade or so, the R&D spending of oil and gas firms has generally declined. According to a DOE survey, R&D spending by major energy producers within the United States declined from $3.05 billion in 1994 to $1.33 billion in 2000. Although not true of all producers internationally, the broad global trend over the past decade or so seems to be along similar lines. (more…)

15.07.2010

Climate Impacts on Energy Demand

climate changes energy
Energy is consumed by various segments of the economy, including households, commercial establishments, manufacturing enterprises, and electric power generators. Only a portion of total energy demand is sensitive to temperature changes. (more…)

24.06.2010

Choosing Alternative Energy Investment – Funds and Stocks Market

With popularity of clean energy, the reduction of carbon and the movement toward earth friendliness, it seems that investment in alternative energy fund would be virtually no risk. But like any new industry, there is no guarantee that all sectors of the market will be successful. Since the technology bubble, which began in the early and mid 90s the market for alternative energy will soon separate winners from losers. If you are lucky or wise enough to choose an achiever, you soon will be getting great gain in your investment. On the other hand, losses are for those who have taken up the approximation that was not well received by the substantial market. (more…)

18.04.2010

Sensitivity of Energy Demand to Temperature Changes

Here, the sensitivity of energy demand to climate is measured two ways. The first method uses elasticities that provide simple summary measures of how departures from normal temperatures affect energy consumption. The second approach, reported in the following section, uses econometric simulation to estimate how climate changes affect energy demand. (more…)

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