The evolution of oil prices is typically subject to a very high degree of uncertainty, given the extremely volatile nature of conditions that affect prices. Information on the future of oil prices is, however, extremely important for market operators as well as for central banks. Central banks, in particular, have a forward-looking perspective, attaching a very important role to inflation forecasts. This uncertainty tends to reinforce the importance of the relationship between oil prices and inflation, independently of estimates of the effects of a permanent change in oil prices on inflation and how to forecast oil prices. Two alternative technical assumptions on oil prices are worth mentioning: (more…)
The focus of this section is on the quantitative assessment of the impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation. For that purp ...
The volatility in oil prices since the early 1970s is a remarkable feature of energy economics. Annual fluctuations in the oil ...
In the post-World War II period, until the beginning of the 1970s, oil price fluctuations were very small. From 1949 to 1970, a ...
Most major oil and gas firms engage in both upstream (i.e., hydrocarbon exploration and production) and downstream (i.e., hydro ...
Energy is consumed by various segments of the economy, including households, commercial establishments, manufacturing enterpris ...
