Global energy consumption in the last half century has increased very rapidly and is expected to continue to grow over the next 50 years. However, we expect to see significant differences between the last 50 years and the next. The past increase was stimulated by relatively “cheap” fossil fuels and increased rates of industrialization in North America, Europe, and Japan; yet while energy consumption in these countries continues to increase, additional factors are making the picture for the next 50 years more complex. These additional complicating factors include the very rapid increase fuel economy in energy use in China and India (countries representing about a third of the world’s population); the expected depletion of oil resources in the not-too-distant future; and the effect of human activities on global climate change. (more…)

Earth’s climate is a complex system of interacting natural components. These components include the atmosphere, the ocean, and the continental ice sheets. Living things on earth—or, the biosphere—also constitute an important component of the climate trends system.

Numerous factors influence Earth’s climate system, some of them natural. For example, the slow drift of continents that takes place over millions of years, a process known as plate tectonics, influences the composition of the atmosphere through its impact on volcanic activity and surface erosion. (more…)

The age of industrialization came into full force through the modern exploration and use of fossil fuels. As one of its most striking phenomena, the rapid expansion of cities throughout the late 19th and the 20th centuries was a direct outcome of the fossil fuel energy economy as well. (more…)

Climatologists generally agree that there is accumulating evidence that a warming trend has been occurring since the mid-1960s. There are rather distinct seasonal and regional climate variations in the lower 48 states of the United States. Livezey and Smith determined that the average national warming trend has been 0.0151F per year. Since 1964, this implies that average annual temperature has increased by approximately one-half of one degree. (more…)

Energy is consumed by various segments of the economy, including households, commercial establishments, manufacturing enterprises, and electric power generators. Only a portion of total energy demand is sensitive to temperature changes. (more…)

Establishing the impact of climate change on energy demand requires a measure of heating and cooling requirements. In the United States, this measure is a degree day, which is defined in terms of an absolute difference between average daily temperature and 651F, which is an arbitrary benchmark for household comfort. Commercial heating degree days are incurred when outside temperatures are below 651F, generally during the winter heating season from October through March. (more…)

It is of interest to examine potential sources of greenhouse gases sources or atmospheric CO2 by analysis of the global distribution of carbon in all its forms. Atmospheric carbon, which can be assumed to be essentially all in the form of CO2 (i.e., 700 Gt carbon equals 2570 Gt of CO2) comprises only about 1.6% of total global carbon, excluding lithospheric carbon. Obvious greenhouse gases sources of direct or indirect additions of CO2 to the atmosphere are therefore fossil fuel deposits, since portions of them are combusted each year as fuels, and terrestrial biomass. (more…)

To determine the effects of past climate trends on global energy consumption, the econometric equations providing the degree day elasticities reported previously are combined into an econometric simulation model. The endogenous variables determined by the model include energy demand in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors of the U.S. economy and the derived demand for primary fuels used in electric power generation. (more…)

Fuel efficiency gains due to technological and operational change can mitigate the influence of growth on total emissions. Increased demand has historically outpaced these gains, resulting in an overall increase in emissions over the history of commercial aviation. The figure of merit relative to total energy use and emissions in aviation is the energy intensity (EI).

When discussing energy intensity, the most convenient unit of technology is the system represented by a complete aircraft. In this section, trends in energy use and energy intensity are elaborated. In the following section, the discussion focuses on the relation of energy intensity to the technological and operational characteristics of an aircraft.

Reviews of trends in technology and aircraft operations undertaken by Lee et al. and Babikian et al. indicate that continuation of historical precedents would result in a future decline in energy intensity for the large commercial aircraft fleet of 1.2–2.2%/year when averaged over the next 25 years, and perhaps an increase in energy intensity for regional aircraft, because regional jets use larger engines and replace turbo- props in the regional fleet. When compared with trends in traffic growth, expected improvements in aircraft technologies and operational measures alone are not likely to offset more than one-third of total emissions growth. Therefore, effects on the global atmosphere are expected to increase in the future in the absence of additional measures. Industry and government projections, which are based on more sophisticated technology and operations forecasting, are in general agreement with the historical trend.

Compared with the early 1990s, global aviation fuel consumption and subsequent CO2 emissions level could increase three-to sevenfold by 2050, equivalent to a 1.8–3.2% annual rate of change. In addition to the different demand growth projections entailed in such forecasts, variability in projected emissions also originates from different assumptions about aircraft technology, fleet mix, and operational evolution in air traffic management and scheduling.

We shows historical trends in energy intensity for the U.S. large commercial and regional fleets. Year-to-year variations in energy intensity for each aircraft type, due to different operating conditions, such as load factor, flight speed, altitude, and routing, controlled by different operators, can be 730%, as represented by the vertical extent of the data symbols. For large commercial aircraft, a combination of technological and operational improvements led to a reduction in energy intensity of the entire U.S. fleet of more than 60% between 1971 and 1998, averaging about 3.3%/year. In contrast, total RPK has grown by 330%, or 5.5%/year over the same period.

Long- range aircraft are B5% more fuel efficient than are short-range aircraft because they carry more passengers over a flight spent primarily at the cruise condition. Regional aircraft are 40–60% less fuel efficient than are their larger narrow- and wide-body counterparts, and regional jets are 10–60% less fuel efficient compared to turboprops. Importantly, fuel efficiency differences between large and regional aircraft can be explained mostly by differences in aircraft operations, not technology.

Reductions in energy intensity do not always directly imply lower environmental impact. For example, the prevalence of contrails is enhanced by greater engine efficiency. NOx emissions also become increasingly difficult to limit as engine temperatures and pressures are increased—a common method for improving engine efficiency. These conflicting influences make it difficult to translate the expected changes in overall system performance into air quality impacts. Historical trends suggest that feet-averaged NOx emissions per unit thrust during landing and takeoff (LTO) cycles have seen little improvement, and total NOx emissions have slightly increased. However, HC and CO emissions have been reduced drastically since the 1950s.

Biomass has been a main energy sources in the world since the beginning of civilization. It has been important in development processes, including early stages of industrialization in several countries. In Sweden, for example, the first concerns about preservation date from the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, resulting from the recognition of the central role played by forests in energy provision. Biomass was also essential in the initial development of the iron industry in Sweden and, later on, the same happened in Brazil, where charcoal is still largely utilized in iron reduction. Biomass remains a major source of energy in many countries. (more…)