Foundations have made good progress on the energy front, but huge gaps remain. Promising technologies in energy production and use today prove that the prospects for an affluent but low-carbon society are good. But the U.S. and the world economies continue to run primarily on oil and coal. As the largest consumer and producer of energy in the world, the United States has the responsibility to lead the transition to cleaner energy technologies. Philanthropy can play a role in this transition by spurring policies that commercialize the best technologies.
But U.S. leadership is not enough. Rapidly developing economies, such as those of China, India, and Brazil, cannot afford to follow our path of energy consumption—they need opportunities to leapfrog to advanced technologies that offer higher standards of living but with radically reduced energy use. Here, too, philanthropic opportunities in energy abound, with potential billion-to-one payoffs. In essence, we are confronted with the ultimate ‘‘diffusion of innovations’’ challenge. Technology learning curves—for clean technologies such as wind power, photovoltaics, or super efficient gas turbines—tell us that each cumulative doubling of production can reduce prices by 20–30%. In turn, lower prices speed the penetration of these new energy technologies into U.S. and world markets. The history of the past three decades suggests energy policy, in the absence of higher price signals driven by energy scarcity, will be the major factor in how fast we move down these clean technology cost curves and toward a transformed energy economy. They also suggest that smart philanthropy can play a productive role.
