Current forecasts call for solid growth in world energy use over the next 20 years, potentially increasing 60% above current energy use. With the forces in place to keep energy use patterns the same, a safe, conservative assumption would be that the commercial sector will contribute about 12% to final total energy consumption in the year 2020.
If world energy use grows to 600 quads, or 630 EJ, by the year 2020, and total final global energy consumption in the energy-using sectors is about 400 quads, or 420 EJ, final consumption in the commercial sector, at 12%, would be about 50 quads/yr (or about 50 EJ), without electricity losses included. This energy use would be two-thirds more than the energy use in the year 2000.
Without significant changes in energy performance of commercial buildings, this scenario of 50 quads of commercial energy use in the year 2020 is likely to occur, absent major world upheaval. If important progress on improving the energy performance of commercial buildings in the advanced economies can be made, potentially a reduction of 2–4 quads or more in commercial sector worldwide use in 2020 (a 4–8% reduction) could be achieved. Such an achievement would require that energy performance certifications become the norm, that operational standards increase significantly, and that 25–40% of buildings in the advanced economies see significant improvements in their performance. This is significant future energy performance.
Methods for certifying the energy performance of commercial buildings have been developed to the conceptual and practical applications stages. However, these methods are in their infancy. Energy policy and research attention to the commercial sector have been lacking relative to the growth observed. Without increased attention to improving commercial sector energy efficiency, energy use growth relative to other sectors will continue to make this sector a challenge when decreased energy use and emissions are sought.
