Although the focus of many policy studies of climate change is on establishing the causal links between anthropogenic systems, emissions of greenhouse gases climate change, the line of causation also runs the other way. Short-term fluctuations in climate conditions, particularly in the temperate zones on the planet, affect energy consumption. If the popular expectation that the climate will become warmer becomes a reality, we can expect winters and summers that are warmer than those of the past.
Warmer summers induce people to use more air-conditioning, which requires more electricity and greater fuel consumption used to generate that electric power. On the other hand, warmer winters reduce heating requirements and the associated consumption of natural gas, distillate fuel oil, propane, and other heating fuels.
The net effect of these two opposing forces on total annual energy demand depends on a number of factors, including local climate conditions, technology, and the behavioral response of consumers to weather conditions.
Overall, warmer climate conditions on balance slightly reduce U.S. energy demand. The estimated impact, however, is very small and pales in comparison to the 7% reduction from 1990 emission levels for the United States under the Kyoto Protocol. Short-term variations in temperature can have sizeable impacts on energy demand.
Petroleum consumption is particularly sensitive to temperature, primarily through the induced effect of weather on electricity demand and the fuels in electric power generation. These short-term weather-related variations in energy demand suggest that any future international agreements on carbon emissions trading should have provisions that adjust compliance rules based on the variance in energy consumption due to weather fluctuations. This is critical factors of the climate change impact on the demand for energy.
